Converts from Crystal Ball - @RISK 4.5 - More @RISK - StatTools - BestFit - @RISKAccelerator - @RISK for Project - RISKOptimizer - PrecisionTree - Seminars
Converts from Crystal Ball
"As a former Crystal Ball® user, I found @RISK to be much more user friendly and its interface truly intuitive. Making the switch has definitely put me at an advantage."
Steve Soeder, Suncor Energy
“My experience with switching to @RISK has been excellent, and I have used it in an unpublished report to a large Australian mine to make an estimate of the collateral trapping of terrestrial reptiles by historically uncapped boreholes following exploratory surveying.
"The ability to present a probability distribution of the tonnage of lost fauna was the key to demonstrating the point of my findings, and had an immediate effect on the individuals to whom the data was presented. It added enormous value to the field data I had collected, because in the little time I had it was so easy to explain to the client what it was I was showing them.
"The power and sophistication of @RISK compared to Crystal Ball® was very impressive, and it had much more depth in just about every respect—better reporting, better choice and control of distribution specification, better sensitivity analysis. I am a very satisfied @RISK switcher.”
Alex Thomas, Didg Information Systems Pty Ltd, Collingwood VIC 3066, Australia
“I absolutely love the product. The conversion of CB models to @RISK models using the CB Conversion Tool was painless and very thorough. I tested it on a very large, multisheet model, and it worked just fine. I particularly like the way that @RISK is integrated into Excel, producing real Excel functions. Just the ability to get rid of the Crystal Ball® limit on non-formulaic assumption cells is worth the transition.
"Terrific product.”
Henry Yennie, CNH Consulting, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
@RISK 4.5
"We've trained well over a thousand people throughout the company on @RISK.”
Bob Hunt, Associate Director for Investment Analysis, Procter & Gamble Corporate Finance
“We love it because it incorporates BestFit and gives us the flexibility to evaluate alternative distributions on screen.”
Art Misyan, Director of Foreign Exchange, Merck Pharmaceuticals
“We're always working with incomplete information. We're looking for results we can be at least 90 percent certain of. I take @RISK everywhere I go in the company.”
Soubhagya Parija, Senior Analyst, Cinergy Corporation
“Simple spreadsheets tell a number. @RISK paints a picture! Show chief executives they have an 80% confidence level in these outcomes, and they come to a decision in minutes!”
Mark Rudd, Prinicpal/Regulatory Compliance, Northern Indiana Power Company
“When you can manipulate multiple variables, the model becomes more sophisticated. It allows you to make additional assumptions which take your analysis to another level than was possible by just using Excel’s Add-in functions. You need @RISK to assess the effect of [multiple] variables. @RISK will automatically rank the correlations and do regression analyses for you.”
Robert Abad, Global Emerging Market Advisors, L.P.
“@RISK is the easiest risk analysis tool on the market, with the most capabilities. Risk analysis within Fluor has moved up to a different level because of Palisade training on the software.”
Waymon Lofton, Oil and Gas Global Estimating, Fluor Corporation
“It is very important for these new decision makers to be entirely comfortable with the overwhelming amount and complexity of information they’ll have to deal with when they when they leave the school for that first big job. And we’re convinced that @RISK is the tool that can provide the most sophisticated perspective on the information they’ll use for decision making.”
Barbara Ostdiek, Finance Professor, Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Management, Rice University
“The bottom line is, with @RISK by Palisade, we can now quantify economic uncertainly with considerable insight. The analytics in @RISK are up front, available, and flexible enough to provide me with everything I need. It’s obvious that @RISK is a great software package for commercial use, but for us, we see equal value as a teaching tool.”
Larry Chorn, Associate Professor of Petroleum Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
"During our everyday consulting work we are using @RISK 4.5 Professional for risk analysis.
"A major part of our calculations is done in Excel; hence, this tool is very convenient for us, virtually providing an additional function. Thus the effort needed to learn how to use the software is relatively small. Many functions can be recognised intuitively and are usable like those known from Excel. Furthermore, an online tutorial offering a good overall view and a manual for questions of detail whilst using the application are available.
"Since we are using this tool we can execute more complex and statistically established calculations in risk management for our customers. For instance, the fast identification of the best fitting distribution of any market factors has improved the quality of our results. Mainly in the risk calculation of the rarely normally distributed yields of raw material factors this function meets our needs. Also, before we started using @RISK, complex simulations with freely definable distributions of the influent parameters were either impossible or could only be managed under considerable expenditure. With @RISK we are now able, and this without the necessity of additional PC capacity, to process thousands of iterations. Extremely well elaborated is the graphics component; distributions, input factors, results etc. are presented in various graphic formats automatically.
"The really convenient issue of @RISK is that not only the input factors are independent from the input structure but the results can be exported into Excel to be processed further, too. We are pleased to recommend @RISK because it represents good value for money."
Schwabe, Ley & Greiner, Treasury Consultancy & Training, Wien, Austria, www.slg.co.at
"We have been using @RISK in core MBA teaching and electives since 1994. The @RISK sessions have been very popular with our students and helped us communicate better important concepts about risk and return. The software is user-friendly and well integrated into spreadsheets, which makes it very easy for students to start using it with minimal advance training. It also provides a range of advanced features, such as sensitivity and scenario analysis, tornado diagrams and parametric analysis that are appealing to managers with a need for sophisticated risk analysis. Many students use @RISK in their project work and, after they complete the MBA programme, in their working environment. We believe that tools such as @RISK are becoming essential for modern managers."
Kiriakos Vlahos, Assistant Professor Decision Sciences, London Business School
"@RISK is an excellent tool for extending risk analysis in Excel. Delegates in modelling courses appreciate the user-friendly interfaces and clear reporting."
Alastair Day, Systematic Finance plc, Guildford, UK
"We use the DecisionTools Suite for practical geological and engineering geological problems where decision and risk analysis models are of major relevance. We found it extremely useful, easy to use and an invaluable tool for students."
Giovanni B. Crosta, Dip. Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Università degli Studi di Milano - Bicocca
"Our research and analysis department is using @RISK as a core part of the budgetary preparation process. Applying @RISK in the early stages of the process, when our goal is to prepare forecasts, has greatly improved our capabilities to define all the risk factors involved. Furthermore, the presentation options included in the package have greatly improved our communication between departments inside our institution, as well as with the interested public."
Dr. Slaven Mickovic, state undersecretary in Ministry of Finance, Republic of Slovenia
"Decision and Risk Analysis is a core part of the Management Science module in the Business Information Technology degree at Kingston. Before, students found it difficult to develop and run small decision and risk models using Excel alone. Now they can use the full capabilities of the powerful Excel add-ins that come with Palisade's DecisionTools Suite to run and analyse even full-scale models in a very efficient manner. My lectures have become more efficient too thanks to the graphic facilities available in the software. There's nothing better than a good graph to illustrate the concepts behind decision and risk analysis and Palisade's tools help me enormously in this task.
"PrecisionTree, TopRank and @RISK are all used intensively in our computer-supported tutorials. Students learn quickly to build decision and risk analysis models "on the hoof" because they are working in an (spreadsheet) environment that is already familiar to them. They not only learn but also have fun! In summary, Palisade's DecisionTools Suite has revolutionised our delivery of the Management Science module at Kingston!
"The DecisionTools Suite Professional is currently being used by approximately 150 Degree Students, with this number rising over the next three months, to an anticipated 180."
L. Alberto Franco, Senior Lecturer in Management Science, Kingston Business School, UK
"We use @RISK to quantify and analyse business risks that are invovled in international venture transactions. Adding @RISK to company valaution techniques like the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF) gives us a more realistic view on future performance developments and lets us do more accurate investment decisions. Especially the ease of use through the Excel-add-in, the richness of distribution functions and the powerful sensitivity analysis functionality makes @RISK fun to work with."
Martin Kroeger, Venture Manager, Siemens Information and Communication, Munich
"@RISK is a wonderful tool which helps business people make accurate, efficient financial projections, as well as accurately establish which risks their investments are exposed to."
Gabriel Rovayo, PH.D, Decisión Analysis Professor, Instituto de Desarrollo Emprearial, Guayaquil - Quito, Ecuador
"Finding the limits of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite is like finding the limits of Excel - there are none."
Denny Migl, CDX Gas
"First things first: you really did an outstanding job! This new edition of @RISK 4.5 is the kind of risk tool that everyone needs regardless of his/her professional field.
"I found tons of enhancements that helped me achieve greater modeling flexibility, especially in terms of Value at Risk (VaR) and Monte Carlo Simulation. I'd like to highlight some of the most relevant findings:
The Define Distribution Window makes me define uncertainty easier than ever
Quick Reports are really fast and straight to the point in terms of critical risk analysis results
@RISK Goal Seek definitely outperforms current Excel functions, because @RISK uses
multiple simulations to determine the input value that achieves the specific goal.
Stress Analysis is certainly what I was looking for in order to get better VaR analysis."
Hernan Alzate, School of Business, SUNY New Paltz, NY
"We are a major non-ferrous metals producer in México, the first gold producer in México, and first Silver Producer in the World. We have been @RISK users since 1992 and we use it mainly for Projects Economics Risk Evaluation and Analysis. We have found it is very easy to adapt it to uncertainty evaluation as well. For example we have used @RISK to evaluate the final random error from a chain of manufacturing operations based on variability of statistics. @RISK functions describe uncertainty in every operation.
"I have been using @RISK personally since 1992 and this is the finest product I have tried ever. Installation was quite streamlined - no problems at all even when I have my machine saturated with many applications. It's faster than version 4.0 on execution. Model building is faster with the toolbar commands and Define Distribution window. Reporting has been optimized, making it easy for non-frequent users. Direct reporting to Excel is very well implemented and elegant. The Advanced Analysis tools are also well implemented."
Ignacio Quijas J., Technology Manager, Met-Mex Penoles S.A. de C.V., Mexico
"There are some very nice features... Quick Reports are an excellent improvement. Overall, @RISK 4.5 looks great."
Russell McGuire, Risklabs, LLC, Marietta, GA
"The @RISK 4.5 multimedia tutorial is an excellent idea!"
William L. Monroe, Financial Planner
"@RISK 4.5's Quick Reports are good - a valuable addition."
Tony Martin, Department of Agriculture, Western Australian
"I wish I were finding bugs in @RISK 4.5 to help, but I'm not. I'm using @RISK as I normally do! I really like the DecisionTools line and use them in my federally-funded research. Great job!"
John (Chuck) Schafer, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Psychology, University of Cincinnati
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the University of Cincinnati
"@RISK 4.5's Advanced Sensitivity Analysis is a very welcome new addition, and I enjoy working @RISK very much."
Sebastian Bjorksten, Director Capital Investments, Six Continents Hotels, London
Alternate Parameter Distribution Functions:" I have used the James Murtha P10, P90 formula (Oil and Gas Journal, 1994) quite extensively in some of my models. The Alternate Parameter distribution functions will simplify my models considerably. The Alternate Parameter distribution functions are a significant addition to the program. They have added significant capability to the running of some of my models. Many oil and gas resource estimators (US Geological Survey, Geological Survey of Canada) report the median value and a low and upside value. I need to be able to reproduce their distributions and the Alternate Parameter distribution functions make this very easy."
Quick Reports: "This is a significant improvement in the reports part of @RISK, in particular the ability to send the charts in native Excel format. I very rarely used the graphics in a picture format. The new feature allows me to send all the graphs at once rather than one at a time as I have been used to. The one page format of results is very good."
Goal Seek: "A useful addition."
Ken Drummond, Drummond Consulting, Calgary, AB, Canada
@RISK
@RISK
"I have used the whole range of products under the DecisionTools umbrella, and cannot speak highly enough of the quality, power and flexibility of the entire software suite. For example, @RISK and PrecisionTree have been applied to risk assessments for oil and gas projects, modelling of extreme environmental loads, as well as evaluation of biological and food-related hazards. I have yet to find a risk problem I could not handle with the software!"
Dr.Gus Cammaert, Senior Consultant with DNV, Aberdeen, Scotland
"As a former managing partner in an industrial firm I have been using almost your complete range of Excel-based @RISK products for decision making in complex problem situations, mainly in production, marketing and project management for more than 10 years. I am referring not only to @RISK itself, but also to your exceedingly beneficial additional programmes like BestFit, RISKView and, of course, @RISK for Project.
"I am pleased to confirm that the acquisition of your software components has proven to be of surpassing performance on numerous occasions and in the most variegated operational areas so that the purchasing price was retrieved more than hundred fold already. It is the intuitive operator guidance that I want to point out commendatory because it excels all your programmes I have got to know so far.
"I would like to allude to the fact that none of the Palisade products I am using has ever caused a system problem or a system break down."
Dr. Werner Tabarelli, Consul General For Austria, In the Principality Of Liechtenstein
"I particularly like the easy handling of @RISK. @RISK makes it simple to master Monte Carlo simulation. It is uncomplicated for the beginner and a joy for the expert."
Gustav Hülsebruch, German Risk Society, info@dgr.de
"When I first read about Palisade's @RISK and BestFit software, I simply had to have it. This software is really amazing. For some years I've been looking for a flexible product like this. No more stressful late nights working with static Excel spreadsheets inorder to meet my clients' deadlines. Palisade's software really makes it easier for me to do my work in less time and with much more fun, too!"
Rolf van Lingen, Logion, transportation, distribution and inventory management consultancy
"@RISK is an excellent tool for simulation. I find it easy to use and powered by excellent features...Its charting power is unmatched."
Jim Clark, June 1999, Financial Engineering News
"The benefit of having used @RISK is that you'll now have more information about the statistical probability of events rather than just having to rely on your own experience…and your gut feeling."
Steve Cotterel, January 1999, Project Manager Today
"[@RISK 4.0] can provide any organization with invaluable insight into the potential risks and rewards of complex business decisions."
Chad Hammond, INFOWORLD, March 20, 2000
"@RISK is an excellent tool for simulation. I find it easy to use and powered by excellent features...Its charting power is unmatched."
"@RISK 3.5 Provides Simulation Power" by James Clark, Financial Engineering News, June 1999
"[@RISK] is an outstanding package. [It is] powerful, efficient, and fun to use. And [the] cost is reasonable."
Richard E. Sherman, "Ask a Casualty Actuary," Business Insurance Feb 9, 1998
"DecisionTools is a really important suite of tools, and I applaud Palisade¹s effort to better integrate some of them into the @RISK modeling framework. BestFit is a really solid distribution selector, and @RISK is a good backbone for the qualitative and quantitative work I perform. I like the flexibility."
Bruce Siegel, Engineering and Business Process Consultant, Los Gatos, California
"We have a collection of professional services under one roof that targets economic or project development.
We recently applied @RISK 4.0 to a simulator to a $2.5M restoration & renovation of a small hotel located in Florida. Without @RISK 4.0 I doubt seriously if we would have been able to craft the deal to a successful conclusion. @RISK 4.0 might be compared to the new night-vision heads-up display that GM is offering on its new Cadillacs. It enables you to "see" things that you cannot otherwise see, and react or make business decisions accordingly."
Jack Moran, MBA Companies, Pensacola, Florida
"For me the greatest strength of @RISK is that it adds functionality to spreadsheeting, a skill that all our students already possess. @RISK adds yet another dimension to sensitivity analysis. In addition, @RISK can be used to visually illustrate many of the big ideas in statistical thought, and this can be done easily within a classroom/laboratory environment."
James Clayson, Departments of International Business Administration and Mathematics, American University of Paris, Paris, France
"I have used the @RISK software for about 10 years now, and have found it extremely useful for constructing simple as well as moderately complex Monte Carlo simulation models. Using the tool, it has been possible to develop simulation models directly reflecting the epidemiological relationships relevant to the simulation problem without requiring computer programming skills."
Dr. Dirk Pfeffer, Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology, Royal Veterinary College, University of London
"@RISK… takes the ‘if’ out of what-if situations and lets business users make more intelligent decisions."
John Taschek, PC Week
"Monte Carlo simulation represents a significant advance in the black art of modeling the future. […] Monte Carlo technology will make us – and our clients – a little smarter about what we can and cannot know about tomorrow and the days that follow."
Robert Veres, “Dow Jones Investment Advisor” May 1996
"DecisionTools is a superior brand of products directed at what I consider the gravest and most consequential activities of most American businesses, Risk Assessment and Decision Making."
Mark Ploskunak, Project Manager, IBM
@RISK
StatTools
"StatTools makes me a better analyst. I can provide more analysis, in a shorter time than I could before. I find it easier to use than setting up an Excel analysis. Also, StatTools has the standard statistical tests already set up."
Richard Cotman of Computer Sciences Raytheon
"In my @RISK modeling and data analysis work with clients, primarily State and County government health and child welfare employees, I am frequently asked to train them on basic descriptive and inferential statistics as well as forecasting and quality control analyses. I previously limited myself to Excel formulas and Analysis Tools to teach such skills, but have now started using StatTools as my primary add-in software for this task. My clients have responded most enthusiastically. They appreciate the ability to take advantage of their proficiency with Excel while finding it easier to carry out the advanced analyses. They can also share their work more easily and knowledgeably with their stat-phobic colleagues, who are often the ones who have to make the operational decisions based on these analyses."
Dr. Anthony Broskowski, President, Pareto Solutions
"Working with StatTools is a breeze. Procedures are robust and powerful, and the ability to work in Excel makes the learning curve very short. The ability to write your own custom procedures sets StatTools apart from other stats packages."
S. Christian Albright, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University
"I applaud StatTools' powerful statistical analysis. The mathematics in Excel leave something to be desired. Long ago I re-wrote Excel's statistical functions as add-in macros due to the lack of precision within Excel. After testing a few of my favorite hand-written algorithms (Tinv, NormSdist, Normdist ,Norminv, Binomdist, to name a few) against the ones you've included with the package, our numbers agree to the last digit! At last, someone takes the initiative! Thank you!"
Gregory E. Cenker, Southern California Edison
"I enjoyed the look and feel of the software. I was delighted to have a statistics tool working along with Excel."
Newton Gichuru, Kennesaw State University
"StatTools will be very useful for my work, as I don't really have a good, easy to use stats program."
Dr. Robin McKellar, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
"StatTools ran well. I like the ability to have different groups."
Chas Becnel, Entergy
StatTools
BestFit
“BestFit basically fits the market return data to a variety of types of distributions, giving me the ability to visualize what markets have similarities.”
Francis Monaghan, Senior Vice President for Research, Zimmerman Investment Company
“BestFit gives us the flexibility to evaluate alternative distributions on screen.”
Art Misyan, Director of Foreign Exchange, Merck Pharmaceuticals
"When I first read about Palisade's @RISK and BestFit software, I simply had to have it. This software is really amazing. For some years I've been looking for a flexible product like this. No more stressful late nights working with static Excel spreadsheets inorder to meet my clients' deadlines. Palisade's software really makes it easier for me to do my work in less time and with much more fun, too!"
Rolf van Lingen, Logion, transportation, distribution and inventory management consultancy
"The first time I [used BestFit to determine probability distributions], I was shocked. This now takes only 3-5 mouse clicks, when it used to take me hours!"
Rolf van Lingen, Logion, transportation, distribution and inventory management consultancy
"BestFit is very easy to use... Price and ease of use make BestFit an attractive product."
Dr. Sam Sugiyama and Jeffrey Chow, OR/MS Today April 1997
"BestFit is a really solid distribution selector, and @RISK is a good backbone for the qualitative and quantitative work I perform. I like the flexibility."
Bruce Siegel, Engineering and Business Process Consultant
BestFit
@RISKAccelerator
"First let me say that the product [@RISKAccelerator] runs great... The increased speed for using just two dual processor machines is nothing short of amazing... Phenomenal!!"
David Brenner, @RISKAccelerator user
@RISKAccelerator
@RISK for Project
“In my opinion, Microsoft Project users can manage project risks better using @RISK for Project. @RISK for Project is a significant improvement for MS Project users. @RISK for Project automates many of the previously time consuming risk management tasks.”
Pat Warner, PMP, member PMI Risk SIG
"We apply @RISK for Project for the assessment of verification strategies, since it offers extensive simulation capabilities at a low price, and promises low training effort at the same time."
Dipl.-Ing. Markus Hoppe, Fachgebiet Raumfahrttechnik (Institute of Astronautics), Systems Engineering, Technische Universität München
"@RISK for Project is an excellent product."
Sir Robert McAlpine
“@RISK for Project delivers a richer picture. It provides a powerful and flexible tool that works with Project to facilitate model building and risk analysis.”
Operations Research Society
"@RISK for Project brings risk analysis capabilities to project management software in an easier-to-use, less expensive format."
Engineering News Records
@RISK for Project
RISKOptimizer
"A uniquely versatile business problem-solver that is surprisingly easy to learn…it's the most practical power tool around."
Charles Seiter, PC World-Online, May 1999
"You might be trying to calculate the optimum size of a production run at the same time as trying to set a selling price for that product. ...[RISKOptimizer] can tell you what production run will give you the best cost/output quality ratio and what selling price would best ensure that the entire run is sold."
PC Magazine, July 1999
"...[I]t's easy to learn, and for many business problems, it's the most practical power tool around."
PC World, May 1999
RISKOptimizer
PrecisionTree
"Palisade Corporation's DecisionTools Suite continues to represent an integral component of my Decision Sciences courses. I have enjoyed showing my students how to build effective, relevant and realistic models using this easy-to-understand software. In particular, PrecisionTree has enabled my students to create decision trees within a spreadsheet environment. Nodes and branches can be inserted quickly and efficiently. The variety of sensitivity analyses available within this package (tornado charts, two-way sensitivity regions, and so forth) provides my students with the opportunity to understand model results."
Dr. Keith A. Willoughby, Dept. of Management, Bucknell University
“PrecisionTree's attraction is its capacity to value complex decisions, which often involve multiple, sequential decision steps. We considered using financial option calculators to analyze the real options that are embedded in our complex decisions, but we found that they simply can't solve for the real option value in projects with multiple, sequential investment decisions. Decision trees are really the only tool that can correctly value multiple sequential decisions where uncertainty is private risk. PrecisionTree has been very useful in helping us break complex projects down into individual decision options, helping us understand the uncertainties, and ultimately helping us make superior decisions.”
Bob Hunt, Associate Director for Investment Analysis, Procter & Gamble Corporate Finance
"I have used the whole range of products under the DecisionTools umbrella, and cannot speak highly enough of the quality, power and flexibility of the entire software suite. For example, @RISK and PrecisionTree have been applied to risk assessments for oil and gas projects, modelling of extreme environmental loads, as well as evaluation of biological and food-related hazards. I have yet to find a risk problem I could not handle with the software!"
Dr.Gus Cammaert, Senior Consultant with DNV, Aberdeen, Scotland
PrecisionTree